NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said the growth number for the 3rd quarter released on Thursday morning was higher than he thought it would be.
"I was very surprised by the number," Goss said. "Although the Atlanta Federal Reserve had been estimating a growth number in that range. 2.6%...2.3 to 2.7% was the range. It fell within their range, not within mine, I expected it to be weaker than that. Overall, it overstates the strength of the economy, in my judgment and in the judgment of investors on Wall Street."
This isn't going to change what the Fed will do in early November.
"The Federal Reserve of course, is raising rates," Goss said. "They'll raise rates next week, as well. This is the last, probably the last good, really good, news we're going to get. Although, the jobs number for the first week in November will be reasonably good. The Federal Reserve is raising rates. Also, the dollar is making exports, U.S. goods sold abroad more expensive, so we're going to be importing more, because we let imports get cheaper. That reduces GDP, as well."
Goss believes this may be a one quarter blip, rather than a growing trend.
"In the fourth quarter, it's coming down from 2.6%, I think there's little doubt about that," Goss said. "The question is, does it go below zero? These numbers, by the way, are seasonally adjusted and annualized, so 2.6% is the growth that would have occurred for the whole year, had the whole year been like the third quarter."
There was negative GDP growth in the first two quarters of the year and Goss notes that even if GDP is growing, for most people, real wages aren't growing to match inflation, so for kitchen tables across the country, this feels more like a recession than it does like growth.
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