The U.S. Department of Agriculture has lowered its beef production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as cattle slaughter remains historically low.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service now projects 2026 beef production at approximately 24.9 billion pounds. That is 90 million pounds below its August forecast.
The agency also reduced its 2027 production forecast by 145 million pounds.
During the first eight months of 2026, cattle slaughter averaged roughly 8,000 fewer head per weekday than during the same period last year. The decline reflects tight cattle supplies and reduced processing capacity.
The USDA expects fewer cattle to be placed in feedlots late this year and early next year. That is projected to reduce the number of cattle marketed during the second half of 2027.
Higher feed costs are also expected to limit cattle weight gains and carcass weights, placing further pressure on beef production.
Despite tight cattle supplies, the USDA lowered its cattle price outlook. The agency cited weaker demand from meatpackers and reduced processing capacity as factors contributing to the revised forecast.