Sep 03, 2023

Goss: Economy is weaker, no recession yet

Posted Sep 03, 2023 9:00 AM
Creighton Professor Ernie Goss PhD
Creighton Professor Ernie Goss PhD

NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post

HUTCHINSON, Kan. — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index was below growth neutral for a second straight month and that concerns economist Ernie Goss.

"Things are weaker, certainly, compared to this time last year," Goss said. "It's still not into recession range, but it's certainly moving in that direction, but we've still got a ways to go if we're going to call this a recession, though."

It's also important to note that some people who haven't had one particular type of debt payment for some time will have it again soon.

"October 1, we're supposed to begin having student loans, those individuals are supposed to begin paying back their loans," Goss said. "That would likewise reduce consumption and reduce sales tax collections. I don't expect that to happen. I think it's become political."

Also, Goss does not like the headwinds he is seeing across the globe, either. 

"China and Germany are two of the large global economies," Goss said. Germany's in a recession. China is moving toward a recession, so that's not good for the overall economy. That is telegraphed back to the U.S. economy, including Kansas. That's going to weigh on the manufacturing economy and the ag economy going forward."

The regional manufacturing economy has lost jobs for the last three months.

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