The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, offering the first full outlook for the 2026-27 marketing year. The report points to tighter wheat supplies, large corn and soybean crops, stronger milk prices and lower global cotton stocks.
USDA projects U.S. wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million bushels from last year because of drought conditions and reduced harvested acreage. Winter wheat production is forecast down 25 percent, driven largely by lower Hard Red Winter wheat output in the Plains. Ending wheat stocks are projected to fall 18 percent, while the season-average farm price is expected to rise to $6.50 per bushel.
Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels. Even with lower production compared to last year, USDA says supplies should remain adequate because of larger beginning stocks. The average farm price for corn is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents from the previous year. Global corn ending stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest level since the 2013-14 marketing year.
Soybean production is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, with stronger crush demand tied to biofuel production. USDA expects soybean exports to increase in 2026-27 as trade with China improves compared to the prior year. The projected season-average soybean price is $11.40 per bushel, up from $10.40 this year.
The dairy outlook was also adjusted higher. USDA increased its 2026 all milk price forecast to $21.25 per hundredweight. Higher cheese and whey prices boosted the Class III milk price forecast, while stronger nonfat dry milk prices offset weaker butter prices in the Class IV forecast.
Cotton production for 2026-27 is projected at 13.3 million bales, down 600,000 bales from the current marketing year. USDA forecasts exports to increase to 12.3 million bales because of stronger global demand, while ending stocks are expected to decline to 3.9 million bales. The projected season-average cotton price is 73 cents per pound.
Globally, cotton production is forecast down 2 percent from last year while world consumption is expected to increase modestly, led by stronger demand in China, India, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan and Vietnam. Global ending cotton stocks are projected to decline 7 percent as several major exporting countries draw down supplies to support exports.