NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss is not positive about the next few months for the economy, and neither are the people he surveys.
"A high proportion of the manufacturing supply managers are expecting a recession before the end of the first quarter of 2024," Goss said. "We're certainly not out of the woods, the region is not and the U.S. is not."
Economists have been looking for a recession all year, but it has yet to really materialize.
"Why didn't we get it?" Goss said. "The economists didn't expect the Biden Administration to run a deficit of $2 trillion, nor did they expect the money supply to continue to hold up to post-pandemic levels."
Goss is calling what's happening to the economy right now a 'rolling recession'.
"Some parts of the economy are in recession," Goss said. "Manufacturing, it's sideways to down. Then you get banking and finance, down, then you get real estate, commercial real estate, down. Now, you've got residential real estate moving lower. Industrial real estate is still holding up okay. You've got some real recessionary conditions out there in certain industries and certain sectors already."
It's still hard to anticipate exactly what the Federal Reserve will do in the coming months, but Goss sees at least one more rate hike on the horizon between now and the end of the year.
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