NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — According to the update to Wichita State University's population growth model released last month, the total population of Kansas is projected to grow by over 468,000 residents, signifying an increase of nearly 16% compared to the 2021 population. The expected growth rate is 0.3% annually until 2071. Jeremy Hill with Wichita State said the metro areas are where a lot of that growth will be.
"They're still growing faster than the rest of the state," Hill said. "They're not growing as fast, just because of what's transpired over the last five to ten years. Once you get from the bigger, large metropolitan areas into more of our medium sized metro areas, like Dodge, Pittsburg and Hays, most of them are growing."
The research conducted by the Center for Economic Development and Business Research, with funding from the Patterson Family Foundation, forecasted population growth for different regions in Kansas by race, ethnic group, age, and gender.
"Hutchinson is already more diversified in race," Hill said. "It has some younger cohorts of families. Because of the underlying prevalence of those, there's higher fertility. They are creating more labor supply than McPherson, because it is less diversified."
That's the reason the projection has Hutchinson growing 7.2% and McPherson declining by 5.2% between now and 2071. There have been some recent events that may change those projections, though.
"Both communities have demand for labor," Hill said. "I realize, McPherson has a lot of demand for labor, not filling all of it. The reality is, you also have to have that supply. There are other factors beyond that, that could still impact this forecast, where it could be wrong. For example, all the foundation money that went to McPherson recently, which is being injected into the economy, could be transformative in the future, but this model doesn't see that."
Lawrence is projected to have the fastest metro growth rate between now and 2071 among the cities in the projection.
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