NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Raj Bhala, Brenneisen Distinguished Professor at KU Law says it is likely that elections all around the globe will have an impact on trade.
"We may see differences in trade law and trade policy depending on who wins the presidential election," Bhala said. " This year, in 2024, there are elections in about 90 countries, encompassing about 2 billion people. India just had its election. And there are elections in Canada, France, the UK, we've just seen them in Mexico, Bangladesh, Brazil."
As the world seems to take a rightward, populist turn generally, elections may have a greater impact than is typical.
"Different parties, we've seen this, for example, in France, have very different outlooks on openness to imports, on supporting through subsidies exports, on encouraging, inviting foreign direct investment, and certainly on immigration, which is a topic related to trade," Bhala said.
The other point is that how politicians run for office and how they run a parliament, or in America's case, an executive branch can vary widely.
"It's hard to predict concrete policy based on campaign rhetoric," Bhala said. "Here are a couple of possibilities. I think that whoever wins the election, I would expect that we will see a second CHIPS Act that may even be bigger than the first CHIPS Act, and the reason I say that is the strategic importance of artificial intelligence and the role that advanced CHIPS play in AI is ever more clear to all Americans, and certainly ones who are charged with dealing with AI issues in the government. It's vital that AI, chip technology related to AI, that the U.S. stays in the forefront of that. And that's probably going to mean another CHIPS Act. Now, it won't be labeled industrial policy, but that's pretty much what it is, American style."
The elections, as they unfold, will definitely be something that those who help goods and money move around the world will need to continue to watch. As an example, the far-right appears to have the upper hand in France with a second round of legislative elections due July 7.
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