NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss is dubious about the next few months economically across the Midwest and across the United States.
"What I'm thinking we're going to see between now and the first quarter of 2024, we're going to see much more weakness out there. For example, credit card balances are at record highs. Of course, that means 20% interest, those who carry balances there. That's going to hit us. The real estate market is looking much weaker and again, in the rural areas, farm income is slated to be weaker for 2023 and even weaker for 2024."
Goss expects to see a downturn come next year.
"I expect a recession in the first quarter," Goss said. "I'll call it a soft recession, if I can use that term. It's a bumpy landing. I think that's the term. There's just too much credit out there. It's pushing individuals with record debt on credit cards. You're talking about students paying back their student loans, which I think is a darn good thing. I hope to see that. We need to see that, but that's going to take some of the steam out of the market."
Goss believes we haven't reached the peak federal interest rate yet, but it will happen relatively soon.
"I think, by the time the next increase is implemented, the next move after that will be downward," Goss said. "That will be in the first quarter or second quarter of 2024. They'll pivot, but don't count on a big cut. It's going to be very small increments when they do begin to cut."
It may be a rough ride for a while as the economy readjusts to COVID money and payment delays leaving and getting back to normal operations.
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