NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said there are quite a few concerns among the bank CEOs that he surveys regularly across small communities in 10 states, including Kansas.
"The real concern out there is a downturn in farm income," Goss said. "Another issue is agricultural exports. Those are really, this year versus last year, much weaker. That's true in Kansas and true for most of the other states we survey."
In Kansas alone, according to the International Trade Administration, the export of agriculture products from Kansas declined from $1.9 billion for the first ten months of 2022 to $1.1 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 43.6% slump. The bankers across the midwest are fairly pessimistic about the future.
"When you take those who believe their area is in a recession and those who think it will go into a recession in the first half of 2024, more than 50% think we're either in a recession or going to be in a recession. Some of it, of course, is related to drought conditions."
If there is a bright spot, it is on the ground in the Midwest.
"Farmers, of course, continue to expand their purchases of farmland," Goss said. "Farmland prices continue to grow, surprisingly strong, that's, of course, another issue. Things are looking somewhat better in terms of an interest rate outlook."
It remains to be seen if interest rates will actually fall in 2024, and if so, how quickly.
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