There has been a steady uptrend to today's setup over the last 48 hours, and now we are looking at a potentially significant severe weather event for the region. The main window for severe weather opens up beginning from 4 p.m. this afternoon and lasts until 1 a.m. Wednesday.
The storm system responsible for the severe risk tonight is continuing to move into Oregon and Idaho. This system is expected to move southeast during the day. At the surface, moisture will haul northward, thanks to stiff south winds to 45 mph. A wind advisory has been issued for the region from 10 a.m. this morning until 1 a.m. Wednesday.
On the north end, a cold front will be moving into northwest and north-central Kansas north of I-70 during the late afternoon hours, and that may be where the event first fires off, in the 4 p.m.to 6 p.m. timeframe. There, we expect clusters of severe storms with very large hail being the main threat. There could be an isolated tornado.
South of US 56, supercells are forecast to be the main storm mode. Models continue to differ on where storms may initiate, but the general theme has been for areas west of I-35, south of US 56, east of US 183, and north of US 412 in Oklahoma. Timing for initiation appears to be in the 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. timeframe.
These storms will move northeast into an extremely potent environment. Suffice it to say, any storm that can remain sustained and independent would be capable of very large hail (tennis to baseball size), damaging winds over 70 mph, and the potential does exist for strong, long-track tornadoes.
Stay tuned to KWBW, Country 102.9 and My 93-1 for updates throughout the day.
You can get the complete KS Storm Info forecast on our weather page.