Residents across central and eastern Kansas should prepare for the potential of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region.
The National Weather Service in Wichita is forecasting a threat of large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Forecasters say all severe weather hazards are possible, with the greatest threat expected between 3 p.m. and 1 a.m. Sunday.
According to the National Weather Service, large hail up to golf-ball size and wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph are possible with the strongest storms. Heavy rainfall is also expected, particularly across southeast Kansas where rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches or more are likely.
Our partners at KSStorm.info say the severity of Saturday's storms will depend in part on what happens during the morning hours. If thunderstorms develop Saturday morning, they could limit atmospheric instability and reduce the intensity of afternoon storms. However, if morning storms fail to materialize, the potential for significant large hail and damaging winds would increase.
"Still looking at the chance for severe weather on Saturday, but the degree of the threat will be dictated by how fast we can destabilize in the wake of morning convection," Harding said. "If we do not have morning storms, then the threat for significant large hail and damaging winds will be considerably higher."
The National Weather Service indicates confidence is highest for damaging winds and large hail, while the tornado threat remains lower and more dependent on whether isolated supercells can develop during the afternoon. Early morning storms could also impact the severity of later storms.
For south-central Kansas, including Hutchinson, Wichita and surrounding communities, the primary window for severe weather appears to be from roughly 3 p.m. to 9 p.m., with storms shifting southeast through the evening.
Officials encourage residents to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and to remain alert throughout the day Saturday. Drivers are also urged to avoid flooded roadways should heavy rainfall develop.