By NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Paul Pastelok the lead long-range U.S. forecaster for AccuWeather sees the potential for an active weather season ahead, but not necessarily in the near future.
"When it comes to being active, looking at climatology and past history, I don't think it's that active for this year early on," Pastelok said. "I do feel it will get active, in the second half especially. I do think there are chances here, coming up in the late 11 to 15 day period and also, as we get later in the month, for another cold front to come through."
The active season is definitely more springtime than summertime, according to Pastelok.
"I think it could even get started late April into early May," Pastelok said. "If you remember from last year, we had a lot of systems diving way down into northern Mexico and the southwest early on in the spring and that jet stream pattern set up right on top of us and gave us a very active mid and late spring. I think the same thing's going to happen, but a little bit farther north on the track this year."
This would mean that most of the major stuff would be north of us, but not by much.
"The traditional trend going into March and April is along the Gulf Coast," Pastelok said. "Then, it expands north and west as you get into April and May. That trend continues. There's a few spots that we think can get going a little earlier. It's an area from north Kansas and Nebraska into Missouri, Illinois and Iowa that could see a couple of big events in mid to late March."
Pastelok has led Accuweather's long-range forecasting team since 2011.