NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said another month's worth of results in his Rural Mainstreet Index has only increased his certainty that the center of the country is struggling.
"It certainly wasn't good news," Goss said. "The bad news keeps on coming I'd say that we can say pretty confidently that the agricultural sector is in a recession right now."
Part of the issue, as Goss continues to note, is tougher data to read on how things are going overall.
"The BLS Statistics their numbers are getting a little weak, a little iffy," Goss said. "In other words, they went from the sample size of 60% were responding now they're down to 40% response rate. Well, what does that mean? That means your margin of error keeps getting larger and larger and the last time they updated their numbers, they had figured out they had overstated jobs by 818,000 jobs."
Another issue is that more grain in the bin is not translating to more money in producer pockets.
"The yields are pretty darn good out there at least the bankers are telling us that and I'm getting it from my farmer friends as well," Goss said. "Of course when you supply increases and that's what we're seeing, the price drops and that's what we've got in terms of grain. Now, I have to say the livestock sector is doing somewhat better that particularly in terms of cattle. Pork not as much."
On average, bankers expect almost 40% of farmers in the region to experience negative 2024 farm income.