NICK GOSNELL
Hutch Post
HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss notes that policy decisions by the incoming Trump administration could have profound effects on the economy. One would be deportation of immigrants, depending on how it is handled.
"We know for certain that the deportation of individuals that are working will have a negative impact on the economy in the U.S. and also contribute to inflation, and certainly that's not good," Goss said. "Now, deporting those who come in and not working, now that's a different story. That would have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. In particular, meatpacking is really a dynamic industry in today's world and is changing with new meat processing, more automation, and it is a very dynamic industry. And in this part of the country, you're seeing it being a very positive input into the overall economy."
It's also important that the dollar remain the way the world pays for things.
"What would it mean to the U.S. if the U.S. dollar loses its reserve status across the globe? Then that means higher interest rates in the U.S. and higher inflation. That's the overall impact for the U.S. You see those nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, buying up gold, and they want to issue a digital currency backed by that gold. Now, that would undermine the U.S. dollar, but they're years away from that, but they are moving in that direction."
Speaking of interest rates, Goss has changed his position on where he thinks they will go before the end of the year.
"I thought there would be no change. I'm now moving toward the likelihood of reduced interest rates on December the 18th, which means short-term interest rates will come down by a quarter percent or 25 basis points."
Between that and what at least looks like a solid holiday shopping season, that could buoy markets in the final weeks of 2024.