May 01, 2020

Baldetti: Trends still matter more than case count, especially as testing expands

Posted May 01, 2020 2:32 PM

By NICK GOSNELL

Hutch Post

HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Reno County Health Department Director Nick Baldetti wants to be sure that we're looking at numerical trends and not just raw numbers when discussing how to go forward with COVID-19 policy.

"One of the things that I've been particularly vocal about over the last few weeks is not getting hung up specifically on the number of cases versus a number of different other points that feed into that in association," Baldetti said. "Yes, we want to continue to see how many cases we have overall, but then we also want to continue to measure the net rate, if you will."

That would include things like how many have recovered and the percentage of tests that are coming back positive.

"It basically accounts for the fact that, if we're expanding our testing versus, say what we were doing a number of weeks ago, but that rate essentially stays relatively the same, within a percentage point or so, that would tell us a bit more about, in concert with the number we're having, about the spread locally."

It's important to note that any policy put out by local officials cannot be less restrictive than that put out by the Governor and more cases does not necessarily equal a faster spread but a greater positive case rate could, if it were to jump more than a percentage point or two.

"The underlying ratios in terms of what's our capacity to test and our activity, I think, is a better informative indicator or indicators than just saying, oh gosh, we've got 36 cases or whatever the case may be, right now," Baldetti said.

It's also important to note that the tests being administered at the Kansas State Fairgrounds vet the appointments with presenting symptoms before scheduling them, so it has no relevance to whether or not there is the potential for asymptomatic spread in the county.