Residents across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and the central Plains should prepare for potentially severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, according to forecasters. A volatile combination of heat, humidity, and unstable air is setting the stage for a significant severe weather outbreak.
While areas of morning thunderstorms are expected—particularly from southern Nebraska into eastern Kansas—their exact placement and impact remain uncertain. However, forecasters believe these storms will weaken by midday, allowing dangerous levels of atmospheric instability to build in the afternoon.
The greatest concern centers around central and eastern Kansas, where powerful southwest winds from the High Plains are expected to bring in very warm, dry air aloft—known as a lapse rate plume. Combined with surface dewpoints in the mid-70s, this environment could fuel explosive storm development along and south of the I-70 corridor.
Meteorologists say the situation is complex, with the timing and strength of later storms depending on how morning activity evolves. But the consensus points to a surge of intense thunderstorms forming late in the day, including the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes—especially where leftover outflow boundaries from earlier storms linger.
Later in the evening, the risk is expected to grow as storms cluster and transition into a mesoscale convective system (MCS)—a dangerous, organized line of storms that could produce widespread wind damage as it pushes east across Kansas and into Missouri.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the region under an Enhanced Risk, its third-highest risk level, for Tuesday’s severe weather threat.
Residents are advised to stay weather-aware, monitor forecasts, and ensure they have a way to receive warnings—particularly after dark when storms may become more widespread and dangerous.